Skip to main content

Is Turkey all talk, or will it split from the West, NATO?

Ankara is sending out plenty of signals that it might leave the West and head east toward Russia and China.
Turkish army tanks and military personal are stationed in Karkamis on the Turkish-Syrian border in the southeastern Gaziantep province, Turkey, August 25, 2016. REUTERS/Umit Bektas - RTX2MYL0
Read in 

People nowadays seriously wonder if Turkey is about to split from the West. Is Turkey’s opening up to the East, which became more noticeable after the July 15 coup attempt, a passing reaction to the lack of interest shown by the United States and Europe, or is it Ankara’s more independent and nonaligned policy choice? Will the honeymoon between Ankara and Moscow in recent weeks become a long-term alliance?

The answers to these questions can be found among Turkey’s military-security indicators, rather than political and economic indicators. The country’s perception of threats and allies has more bearings on its long-term strategic choices. After President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent comment that if Turkey takes its place in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), this “will allow it to act more freely,” there has been a sharp rise in speculation that Turkey may leave the Western security bloc.

Access the Middle East news and analysis you can trust

Join our community of Middle East readers to experience all of Al-Monitor, including 24/7 news, analyses, memos, reports and newsletters.

Subscribe

Only $100 per year.