The Feb. 26 cessation of hostilities in Syria, which were followed by a conference in Geneva between warring parties on March 14, gave a glimmer of hope to the Syrian peace negotiations. This hope is now fading, with the resumption of clashes this month between President Bashar al-Assad's regime and the opposition in Aleppo conflating with the stalling of the ongoing peace process in the Swiss city. What are the various scenarios that might play out in Syria, and can a more realist median solution arise from the rubble?
Despite multiple breaches, the level of violence across Syria dropped dramatically over the last few months. “There is a feeling of normalcy in Daraa in spite of clashes with the Yarmouk Brigade, which is affiliated with the Islamic State [IS],” says a fighter from Ahrar al-Sham, who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.
The fragile cease-fire seems to be now collapsing, nonetheless. Syrian opposition factions including the groups Salafist Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam declared a counteroffensive on the regime forces on April 18 dubbed Rad al-Mazalem (Facing Oppression). Aleppo also witnessed an escalation in fighting in the last few weeks around mid-April, as Syrian forces backed by the Russian air force continued their offensive on the city. The area was also the scene of intense clashes between rebels and IS, according to Free Syrian Army Lt. Hassan Hamadeh, who spoke to Al-Monitor. “The rebels are under pressure both from the regime and IS,” he added. The recent fighting between the rebels and the regime has already allowed IS to recapture areas it had lost in northern Aleppo around al-Rai. In addition, a regime airstrike in the area of Maarat al-Numan killed around 40 people this week.
The situation appears to also be devolving on the political side. In Geneva, a source within the opposition told Syrian newswire Alsourianet that it had asked UN special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura to postpone the current round of negotiations. “The regime has not taken seriously the negotiations; they are creating diversions to avoid speaking of the transition phase,” Syrian opposition delegate to the UN Najib Ghadban told Al-Monitor. Independently of the UN-led peace negotiations in Geneva, the regime also held parliamentary elections on April 13.
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