Jordan's task of overseeing the development of a list of organizations fighting in Syria that are actually terrorist groups is a job fraught with potential headaches for the kingdom. The assignment by the International Syria Support Group is part of efforts to launch negotiations between the Syrian regime and the so-called moderate opposition early next year. Announced by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Nov. 15, the move is also tied to Article 6 of the support group's Oct. 30 Vienna Communique, which states, “Daesh [Islamic State, IS], and other terrorist groups, as designated by the UN Security Council, and further, as agreed by the participants, must be defeated.”

The Jordan Times quoted Minister of State for Media Affairs and Communications Mohammad Momani as saying, “Selecting Jordan for this task illustrates the international community’s recognition of Jordan’s capabilities and the efficiency of its military and security apparatuses.” Mohammad Abu Rumman, an expert on Islamist groups, said, however, the assignment might put Amman in a bind, given its special relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates, its intelligence contacts with the United States and Europe, and its particular knowledge of the groups in Syria, including their financers and other supporters. In addition to US financial and military assistance, it relies on grants from Saudi Arabia, the UntAE and Kuwait.

Abu Rumman told Al-Monitor, “This is a complicated issue that could compromise Jordan since adding more groups to the list will provoke their backers and threaten the kingdom’s stability.” The support group has already agreed to include IS and Jabhat al-Nusra on the list. Among the groups that could possibly be added are Ahrar al-Sham, al-Sham Front and Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest).

“Some of these Islamist groups fall in a gray area. Some will argue that they are radical, while others will claim they are moderate,” said Abu Rumman. This, he added, is part of the challenge facing Jordan. The survey group's designations could affect alliances among the anti-regime groups — for instance, Jaish al-Fatah's affiliation with the already designated Jabhat al-Nusra — and weaken the opposition on the ground, especially if foreign backers stop financing some of them, Abu Rumman noted.