Is Iran's inflation deflating economic recovery?
Will the domestic pressures Rouhani is facing force him to abandon his goal of single-digit inflation?
President Hassan Rouhani is having a hard time convincing people in Iran that he can match his spectacular success in foreign policy with domestic policy. His Reformist backers are criticizing him for not doing enough to open up the political space, and ordinary people are complaining about lack of improvements in the economy. To do well in the upcoming February 2016 parliamentary election, he needs to convince voters that he can deliver on his chief economic promise: to grow the economy and create jobs.
The initial economic bounce from Rouhani’s election in June 2013 and the signing of the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) later that year ended nine quarters of negative economic growth and added 2-3% to the gross domestic product in the Iranian calendar year of March 2014-March 2015. Despite the successful negotiation of the final nuclear agreement with six world powers in July 2015, the initial momentum has been lost.
Many blame the lackluster performance of the Iranian economy this year — it is barely growing — to economic austerity aimed at bringing inflation down to single digits. Annual inflation reached a high of 34.7% in the Iranian calendar year from March 2013-March 2014, when Rouhani was elected, and dropped to 15.5% the following year.
But not all of the decline in inflation is due to Rouhani’s austerity. Inflation was on its way down several months before Rouhani took office, in part because the inflationary shock of the 2012 devaluation was wearing off and in part because of global deflation. Food prices have declined by one-third since 2011, as have other commodity prices. The stability of the exchange rate, for which Rouhani can take some credit, has helped translate these declines into lower import prices in Iran.
