TEHRAN, Iran — The July 14 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers has prompted speculation about change in Iranian relations with Arab states. Rumors of the deal influencing Iran’s regional policy were circulating even before the agreement was reached, especially among Arab research centers and media outlets. With the deal becoming a reality, this matter has turned into a hot topic again amid Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s string of regional tours as well as his initiative to jump-start dialogue between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — an initiative that Qatar is reported to be seriously pursuing.

Yet, despite Qatar’s reported stance, what is more important is Saudi Arabia’s reaction to Iran’s efforts and how it views the future of relations with Tehran.

Riyadh has advanced its war in Yemen into a ground offensive and increased its support for Syria’s opposition. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has not welcomed the nuclear deal — with the only exception being after King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud's recent trip to Washington — and has shown reservations about Iran’s increased diplomatic maneuvering in the region, both at the official and nonofficial levels. In this vein, the question arises as to why a change in relations between Tehran and Riyadh is difficult, if not impossible, in the short term. Five key factors explain this dynamic.

First, maintenance of security is the one crucial and mutual expectation Iran and Saudi Arabia have of each other. At the national level, this means not provoking or supporting respective minorities and backing fringe movements. At the regional level, this translates into avoiding mobilization against respective regional allies or acting to counter the other side’s strategic options. Although Iran and Saudi Arabia have never engaged in any serious and direct measures against each other’s national security, the story has been different at the regional level. Both countries have taken, and continue to take, measures against each other’s strategic allies, as witnessed in Syria and Yemen. Saudi Arabia has extensively invested in the toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and weakening Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement. In response, Iran has increased its support for the Syrian government to unparalleled levels. Separately, in Yemen, Iran has supported Ansar Allah (Houthi) fighters as a popular movement, while Saudi Arabia has launched an air and ground offensive to seize power from them. The two nations’ rivalry has even spread to Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon, thus escalating the atmosphere of insecurity. Therefore, under the current situation, the most important function of a bilateral relationship, namely maintaining security, does not seem to be working for either side. Furthermore, neither Tehran nor Riyadh harbors hope that improving bilateral relations will change this atmosphere of deteriorating security.