One of the effects of the rise of the Islamic State (IS) has been the emergence of Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force, as the foremost military commander in Iraq. This has been particularly evident in the absence of the US military and with the establishment of the Popular Mobilization Units.

However, while his military clout has expanded, Soleimani’s political influence appears to be increasingly checked. Indeed, today, the most powerful Iranian in Iraq is arguably Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. While in the making for years, this trajectory has accelerated following IS’ blitz in northern Iraq last summer. The fall of Mosul and increasing tensions with the Kurdistan Regional Government and Sunni leaders did not singlehandedly end former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s rule. Rather, it was the disapproval of the grand ayatollah. Neither Soleimani’s personal backing nor the highest number of votes for his bloc and for his person could shield Maliki from Najaf.

Developments over the past year, including the ascendance of current Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, also divulge another key aspect of Iranian influence in Iraq — the impact of the rise of moderates in Tehran.

Since taking office in August 2013, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has reiterated that his government sees the region as its priority. Mohammad Javad Zarif, who led intense talks that concluded with Iran’s nuclear deal with six world powers in July, did not make the United States, France or Russia his first destination as foreign minister. Instead, he chose to visit Iraq. Not only has he frequently traveled westward over the past two years, but notably made a habit of paying a visit to the grand ayatollah in Najaf before going to Baghdad. Of note, Zarif even traveled directly to Najaf following a round of nuclear negotiations in Switzerland earlier this year. The current moderate secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, has also come to increasingly play a role in the shaping of regional policy. An ethnic Iranian Arab who served as defense minister under Reformist ex-President Mohammad Khatami, Shamkhani was appointed by Rouhani and has the confidence of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Notably, amid the deadlock over Maliki’s future last summer, Shamkhani’s visit with the grand ayatollah in Najaf helped facilitate the peaceful power transition in Baghdad.