The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the July 11 attack on the Italian Consulate in downtown Cairo, which destroyed the historic building, killed a bystander and injured at least 10 others. The attack is unprecedented, if somewhat expected.

Since at least the winter of 2013, diplomats from and bureaucrats in most major Western capitals, including those with warm ties to Cairo, have been expecting an attack on either soft or Western targets in Egypt, and privately expressing this in closed circles. That has been the case for American diplomats, but also for international representatives from most European capitals.

The attack on the morning of July 11 was both, and the first one on Western premises. Italy’s embassy lies several kilometers away, but the consulate in downtown still represents an official Italian — and therefore Western — target.

Italy regards the attack as a direct strike on Rome, insisting it would not be “intimidated." And it is a direct attack, but if this was a militant attack on the consulate, it was likely an attack on the consulate as a Western target rather than specifically on an Italian target. There may be questions around why this vulnerable Western target was attacked as opposed to any other — there are a number of Western interests that could have been targeted, after all. But perhaps a more pertinent question is: Why now?