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Why Assad may be helping Islamic State’s offensive

The latest regime airstrikes against rebels in Aleppo’s northern countryside seem to benefit the Islamic State, but also help the Syrian government divide its enemies.

Forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad  walk inside the government- controlled Hanano barracks after what they said was an offensive against them by Free Syrian Army fighters in Aleppo April 17, 2014. The regime forces said that Free Syrian Army fighters carried an offensive against them by digging a tunnel and blowing up part of the Hannano barracks in an attempt to seize it and failed to do so. REUTERS/George Ourfalian   (SYRIA - Tags: POLITICS CIVIL UNREST CONFLICT MILITARY) - RTR3LPQX
Forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad walk inside the government-controlled Hanano barracks after what they said was an offensive against them by Free Syrian Army fighters in Aleppo, April 17, 2014. — REUTERS/George Ourfalian

ALEPPO, Syria — Airstrikes by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime on rebels in the northern countryside of Aleppo raise the question of why regime forces seem to be supporting the latest offensive of the Islamic State (IS). This support came through regime air raids on towns under the control of rebels close to the front lines with IS, where violent clashes have been ongoing since May 31.

Al-Monitor recorded regime airstrikes against 17 rebel-held villages and towns in Aleppo’s northern countryside from May 31 to June 11. In contrast, IS-controlled towns in Aleppo’s northern countryside were spared any regime air raids.

Among the towns bombed by regime aircraft, four were part of a direct front line between the rebels and IS, among them Marea, Tlalin and Tell Qara, while 13 others formed part of a network of supply routes and staging areas for rebels on their way to fight IS, such as Tell Rifaat, Herbel and Ihras.

The intensity of the bombing that Aleppo’s northern countryside was subjected to, in conjunction with IS’ attack, seemed to further confirm that these were not regular regime strikes against areas outside of its control as shown in the map below. What’s even more important was the fact that villages that had not been targeted for a considerable period of time were now bombed by the regime in conjunction with IS’ attack on rebel forces in Tlalin, for example, which had not been bombed since July 2014, and Herbel, which had been spared since August 2014.

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