Israel fears breakup of Syria
Israeli experts are cautious about predicting events in Syria, but concede that despite losses by Hezbollah there, the organization might attack Israel unexpectedly from the Lebanese border.
Israeli Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, who previously headed the Northern Command, addressed a Tel Aviv University conference June 1 to mark 30 years since the Israel Defense Forces’ establishment of the security zone in southern Lebanon. He said, “From a strategic perspective, our situation in the northern arena may be better than ever.” On the other hand, Golan added that Hezbollah now possesses formidable, unparalleled capabilities that no other terrorist organization ever had, and is capable of threatening all of Israel’s population centers. Oh, and that the Islamic State could develop into a “disturbing future threat.” He added, “The Syrian army has, for all intents and purposes, ceased to exist.”
Golan's statements come on the heels of a string of harsh setbacks for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from the various insurgents in Syria. There are clear, perhaps unprecedented signs that the Syrian regime may actually fall in the foreseeable future. You won’t find anyone in Israel willing to go out on a limb with a prediction on this issue, after many experienced people made the mistake of eulogizing Assad innumerable times in the past (including former Defense Minister Ehud Barak). Meanwhile, those doomsayers themselves have disappeared from the scene, while Assad remains. Nevertheless, despite the consternation regarding the general atmosphere of uncertainty hovering over the current situation, Israeli security elites are beginning to formulate interesting insights regarding the configuration on the northern front.
A high-level Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officer possessing expertise on the northern arena told Al-Monitor this week on condition of anonymity, “Take [Hezbollah Secretary-General] Hassan Nasrallah, for example. Every year around May 24 we’d get fireworks and festivities from him. It’s his yearly speech on the anniversary of the IDF’s exit from Lebanon, which is actually Hezbollah’s independence day. In this annual speech he exhibits self-confidence, arrogance and euphoria as he fluently and verbally castigates Israel. After all, it was on this date that he first delivered his famous ‘spider's web’ speech, in which he compared Israeli society to a cobweb lacking stamina and endurance.
“And what happened on May this year?” asked the officer. “Suddenly we found a completely different Nasrallah. He delivered three speeches in a week, each of which was more hysterical than the last. For the first time, Israel occupied a negligible place in his speeches. Suddenly he’s talking about an existential threat to Hezbollah. That they need to mobilize and defend their homefront. That ‘they are coming to rape our daughters and wives.'
