On March 27, panelists on Israeli TV Channel 2 Television News debated the emerging agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and the war in Yemen between the Sunni coalition and Tehran loyalists. “Imagine that these Iranian moves were to happen with Iran holding a bomb,” defense analyst Roni Daniel commented. “Under a nuclear umbrella, no one would dare touch them, talk to them.”
What should one gather from Daniel’s apocalyptic scenario? Should one welcome a nuclear agreement that pushes into the distance, if not prevents, an Iranian doomsday weapon advantage? Perhaps the confrontation in the Gulf illustrates the danger of a “bad nuclear deal” with Iran, as its critics argue.
Do Iran’s imperialistic ambitions strengthen the imperative of stopping its nuclear program, tightening supervision of its nuclear facilities and gradually replacing the sanctions sticks with economic carrots, or is it better to derail the nuclear negotiations, give up on inspections and hope that adherence to the sanctions regime will encourage Iran to surrender? All this assuming, of course, that President Barack Obama and the other leaders of the six world powers are unwilling to become embroiled in a new Middle East war. One should also keep in mind that most of the experts agree that in the best case, military action will only delay the Iranian nuclear program by two years. One can also assume that the powers’ negotiators in Lausanne aspire to leave there with a completed agreement, but the Iranian representatives cannot go home with a document of seeming to surrender to Israeli demands.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a simple response to these complex questions. He draws a straight line between the confrontation in Yemen and the advanced-stage negotiations in Lausanne and impending “dangerous agreement” between Iran and the six world powers. At the start of the weekly Cabinet meeting March 29, Netanyahu said, “Even as meetings proceed on this dangerous agreement, Iran's proxies in Yemen are overrunning large sections of that country and are attempting to seize control of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb straits, which would affect the naval balance and the global oil supply.” Too true.
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