Will Russia disrupt Iran nuclear talks?
Russia could choose to escalate its relationship with the United States and Europe by interfering in the Iran nuclear negotiations.
Notwithstanding earlier fears that Russia could act as a “spoiler” in nuclear talks with Iran — particularly as its relations with the United States and most European governments continue to deteriorate — Moscow may actually be less able to use such leverage as a deal looks increasingly possible.
Russia’s ability to disrupt the talks, as well as its broader relationship with Iran, has been a key US concern for quite some time. In the past, I have myself argued that growing Russian support for Iran could be a dangerous consequence of a hostile US-Russia relationship. Nevertheless, the potential costs to Moscow in disrupting the negotiating process will likely increase significantly as an agreement looks more and more probable.
Of course, any effort to wreck the process at this point would represent a dramatic escalation in Moscow’s ongoing confrontation with Washington and its European allies, especially at a time of (relative) calm in Ukraine. Still, if heavy fighting resumes and the United States elects to provide lethal arms to the Kiev government, the current standoff could spiral beyond either side’s control. The time remaining before the summer deadline for a final Iran deal is more than sufficient for this.
Yet, the Kremlin could face three serious problems if it chose to play the spoiler as many have long worried. (Any decision to do so would come from the Kremlin, not Russia’s Foreign Ministry or its capable chief negotiator, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov.) First, Iran’s leaders appear to want a deal. President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif have certainly worked hard to attain an agreement; Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has tolerated their effort. Moreover, while Iran’s government might reap domestic political benefits if it could blame a collapse in the process on Washington, this would be a harder case if Moscow were clearly responsible. Tehran wants Russian threats to bolster its negotiating position, not to undermine a potentially satisfactory outcome. With that in mind, once the talks reach a certain point, blocking an agreement would harm rather than help Russia’s relations with Iran.
