Turkey missed its key economic targets in 2014

Turkey failed to achieve its main economic targets in 2014, barring a significant decrease in the current account deficit. This outcome had become obvious months ago, prompting the government to revise its middle-term economic program in October. The current account deficit narrowed more than expected, thanks to the fall in oil prices and the slowdown in economic growth, but most year-end indicators fell behind even the revised targets.

Let’s first see how the targets had been revised:

• Unemployment: up to 9.6% from 9.4%
• Exports: down to $160.5 billion from $166.5 billion
• Current account deficit: down to $46 billion from $55.5 billion (due to decreased energy costs)
• Inflation: up to 9.4% from 5.3%
• National income: down to $810 billion from $867 billion
• National income per capita: down to $10,537 from $11,277
• Growth: down to 3.3% from 4%

Now, let’s see how the Turkish economy performed:

Unemployment: The unemployment rate stood at 10.4% in October, according to the latest figures revealed on Jan. 15. In remarks to Al-Monitor, however, economist Hursit Gunes estimated the actual jobless rate at about 18%, including the number of job seekers who have not applied for work in the past four weeks, which the official figures omit. Hence, the government has failed badly in combatting unemployment, given the 9.4% target at the beginning of 2014.