As international negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program move closer to resolution — whether in an agreement, or in collapse of the talks — Russia may see expanding opportunities for nuclear power plant construction across the Middle East. As a result, nuclear diplomacy is likely only to grow in importance for Moscow. It may also become an increasing source of tension with the United States.

The United States has, of course, long argued that an Iranian nuclear warhead, or even an enrichment capability, could accelerate proliferation by prompting governments throughout the Middle East to develop their own nuclear power plants so that they, like Iran, could move closer to a nuclear weapons capability. At the same time, rising electricity consumption is forcing leaders in the region to consider their options in ensuring adequate electricity generation. Tightening water supplies, and the massive amounts of energy required for desalination plants to process seawater for industrial, agricultural or residential use, only intensify the pressure to produce more power.

Whatever their outcome, the Iran talks are unlikely to change these dynamics very much. Iran has an operating nuclear reactor and has plans for additional units. Even if the negotiations produce an agreement that totally bans all enrichment (unlikely as Iran would not accept it), the nuclear genie may already have escaped its bottle. What responsible leader will count on Tehran’s full adherence to any deal without preparing for possible alternatives? Setting aside longstanding suspicion of Iran’s intentions, few leaders anywhere can afford to assume that their rivals always live up to their word and accordingly have to hedge their bets. And this is the best-case scenario — success in the negotiations. If the process breaks down, the pressure to consider an independent nuclear capability will only be greater.

Moscow has already been an active player in the Middle East’s nuclear energy market, signing civil nuclear cooperation agreements with not only Iran, but also Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Syria and Turkey. Seen from the other direction, Moscow has signed agreements not only with countries that are either close US or European partners (Morocco, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates), too small (Bahrain) or politically unstable and/or financially strained (Iraq, Lebanon, Tunisia, Yemen). Russia of course cannot sign an agreement with Israel since Israel is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.