The general consensus among Western observers is that Iran is at best a minor foreign participant in the internal Yemeni struggle for power. On the other hand, Iran’s Arab rivals in the region, principally Saudi Arabia, see Tehran as both an instigator and a key driver behind Yemen’s domestic political turmoil. The reality seems to lie somewhere between the two viewpoints. Still, though it is hard to ignore Tehran’s newfound interest in Yemen, it does not necessarily have to result in a showdown with Riyadh.

Root causes

Iran’s role in Yemen’s ongoing conflicts is a contentious topic, and the extent of its intervention is still questionable. Yemen, the Arab world’s most impoverished and arguably most fragmented state, has experienced violent civil conflict since the north and south unified in 1990. One of the country’s most persistent rebellions took place in the north, on the border with Saudi Arabia, the home region of Yemen’s Zaidi population.

The Zaidis, comprising some 35-40% of Yemen’s total population of 24 million, are an offshoot of mainstream Shiite Islam. However, their religious links to Iran, the world’s largest Shiite state, has never been as strong as the ties between Iran and other Arab Shiite populations in Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain or the Eastern province of Saudi Arabia.