Until Operation Protective Edge, former Likud Communication Minister Moshe Kahlon did very well in the polls. Though the theoretical party headed by him had yet to be formed, it still got between 10 and 14 seats. Kahlon has made up his mind not to return to the Likud as long as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was part of it. In private talks with political insiders, he estimated that a drama could unfold in the next elections when a coalition of party leaders coalesces to oppose Netanyahu, and prevents him from serving a fourth term as prime minister.
Based on assessments, which are getting more and more established, the political fragmentation will continue into the next elections. Six parties in the Knesset will be midsized or midsized-plus, and each of the people heading those parties will be able to form the next government. Those parties are the Likud, HaBayit HaYehudi, Yisrael Beitenu, Labor, Yesh Atid and Kahlon’s new party. Under such circumstances, even if the Likud under Netanyahu had the most seats of all the parties, he could still be prevented from forming a government if those parties formed an alliance to block him. According to the law as it currently stands, the president assigns the task of forming a government to the candidate with the best chances of fulfilling that task, and not necessarily to the head of the largest party.
