With less than two weeks to go for Turkey’s first direct presidential elections Aug. 10, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains the most likely winner, with polls predicting he will receive least 50% of the vote. Who will succeed him as leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), and consequently as prime minister, however, remains uncertain. This is a matter of vital importance to Erdogan, as it has serious implications for his presidency.

Polls conducted among AKP members show that incumbent President Abdullah Gul remains the most favored name to head the party and become prime minister. There are indications, however, that Erdogan does not want Gul in this position.

Another AKP figure bandied about in this context is Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. But Davutoglu is a lesser name whose popularity within the party falls far short of Gul’s, and whether he can maintain party unity is questionable.

Erdogan has declared his intention to exercise executive powers as president in ways that are currently not facilitated by the constitution. He has also signaled that he wants a presidency that is unencumbered with the kinds of checks and balances the US president faces. Erdogan says that this is the fist time the president will be elected by the people in Turkey, which will effectively make him “the leader of the nation.” The present constitution, however, defines a parliamentary system. It gives the president certain powers but the prime minister is the head of the executive branch.