Tehran, Iran — It would be an understatement to say that Iran does not have an interest in the Iraqi parliamentary elections held April 30, and far too simplistic to conclude that Tehran is backing the current prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, for a third term. The Iran-Iraq relationship is a complex mosaic of history, politics, war, religion and, most critically, Iran’s strategic depth in dealing with the Syria civil war and its tensions with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an informed Iranian source told Al-Monitor that Iran’s perceptions of Iraq are influenced by the role of the United States in the region. He explained, “Enemies of Iran in the Middle East and around the world had the illusion that another chapter of the fall of Baghdad would be [written] in Tehran. Saddam’s falling statues in different cities around Iraq made an American victory [appear] eminent and ineluctable. In 2009, when the US army withdrew, things proved the opposite.” In other words, the early threats of isolation and being the next to be toppled morphed into an Iranian win. 

Perhaps surprisingly, the United States and Iran now share an interest in Iraq’s political stability, but while US influence in Iraq may have decreased with the withdrawal of US forces, Tehran’s influence has expanded in all aspects of Iraqi politics, economics and society. 

“There are many common factors that bring Iran and Iraq together, common interests, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who resided in Iran during the war,” said the source. He added, “All the other countries in the region stabbed Iraq in the back. Iran’s decision was to help Iraqis in whatever they wanted to do, and that’s why today Iran and Iraq have a $12 billion trade exchange, and in a few years this will be $30 billion.”