Despite sending strong signals that he intends to run for the Turkish presidency in August, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has again asserted that he remains undecided. He gathered his party’s lawmakers on April 16 to discuss the matter and announced, “I have not made my decision yet.” He added, “And I don’t approve of announcing names [for the presidential bid] at this point. There will be no chaos in the party if I decide to run or choose to stay [as the prime minister]. The most important thing is the institutional structure of our party.”
Erdogan’s stated position, however, defies reality simply because of his control-oriented, and some would say self-centered, leadership that dominates all aspects of his party and members’ actions. The party’s success is explained more by Erdogan’s leadership than its institutional structure. In fact, many party insiders tie the fate of the resolution of the Kurdish issue to the prime minister’s political future. They consider the Kurdish vote to be in Erdogan’s pocket if he decides to run in Turkey’s first direct election of its president.