Get ready for the next Erdogan decade

Last week, Turkish President Abdullah Gul declared to the press, "Under these conditions, I don't have plans for politics." This was widely interpreted as an end to expectations that Gul, somehow, would keep sharing power with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan after the presidential elections in August. Now many believe that Erdogan will win the elections to become the first popularly elected president of Turkey, and there will be no Gul to balance him.

One may wonder why Gul is so important. As one of the two founders of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Gul has not simply been an ally and "brother" of Erdogan, but also the only name in the AKP universe that could afford to openly disagree with him. It is no wonder a number of differences have emerged between them in the past few years. In the face of the Gezi Park protests, for example, Gul advocated for moderation and dialogue, whereas Erdogan opted for defiance. Gul opposed the recent bans on Twitter and YouTube that Erdogan ordered and defended. In addition, Gul dismissed the conspiracy theories about foreign plots against Turkey, one of the main themes in Erdogan's new political rhetoric.

That is why most of Turkey's liberals had hoped that Gul, a religious conservative with liberal views, would continue either as president, or more likely, as prime minister under Erdogan. The "Putin-Medvedev model," as some have called it, has now, however, been declared dead upon Gul's remarks.

People wonder why Gul backed off. My understanding is that he realized two bitter facts. First, accepting the prime ministry under Erdogan would imply accepting his unquestionable authority, which Gul is loath to do. Second, challenging Erdogan would be political suicide, because of Erdogan's unshakable popularity among the religious conservatives that also form Gul's base. Thus, it seems, Gul made both an honorable and a rational decision by stepping aside.