There is a general assumption that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan — following on the strong turnout secured by his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the municipal elections — will emerge as a candidate for the presidency and will win. The likelihood of this happening increased after Abdullah Gul, the incumbent president, signaled that he will stand aside and thus not pose an obstacle by running himself.

Erdogan and Gul met on March 31, after it became clear the AKP had taken nearly 45% of the overall vote in the municipal elections the preceding day. Although the full details of their discussion are not known, the two men are believed to have arrived at an understanding concerning the presidency. They are co-founders of the AKP, which they guided to power in 2002 and have kept there since. Despite appearing to differ with Erdogan on key issues pertaining to Turkey's democracy, Gul has signed every law put before him by the government, including those enabling it to ban Twitter and YouTube at will. This is being taken as a clear signal that Gul has the AKP’s political interests foremost in his mind.

Based on a constitutional amendment adopted in 2007, in the elections scheduled for Aug. 10 the Turkish president will for the first time be elected by popular vote. If one candidate fails to win a majority in the first round of balloting, a second round will be held to determine the winner on the basis of the highest vote count. Before the amendment, the president had been elected by parliamentary deputies.

Key AKP figures are openly declaring that Erdogan is their presidential candidate and that they expect him to win comfortably. According to Mustafa Sentop, deputy head of the AKP in charge of election strategy, the results of the municipal elections are a “green light” from the electorate for an Erdogan presidency. Deputy Prime Minister Emrullah Isler has no doubt that Erdogan will win comfortably in the first round.