Watch Trendlines “Blowback?: Ukraine and the Middle East"

The consequences of the crisis in the Ukraine for US-Russia relations and the Middle East will be the subject of the next PBS NewsHour/Al-Monitor “Trendlines” web special, which can be viewed on Al-Monitor.com, Wednesday, March 12, at 10 a.m. EDT. It will feature Dennis Ross, William Davidson Distinguished Fellow and counselor at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Nasser Hadian, professor at Tehran University and a contributor to Al-Monitor; Fiona Hill, director of the Center on the United States and Europe and senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution; and Ben Caspit, columnist for Al-Monitor’s Israel Pulse. The program will be moderated by Margaret Warner, chief foreign correspondent for PBS NewsHour.

Fyodor Lukyanov writes for Al-Monitor this week that one consequence of the breakdown in US-Russia ties over Ukraine is that Moscow could reduce or end its diplomatic pressure on Damascus to engage in internationally brokered talks on Syria.

“The military-political situation in Syria allows Bashar al-Assad to have hope for victory, or at least for a long-term preservation of the current balance,” writes Lukyanov. “Moscow will simply stop applying pressure on him, urging the need for diplomacy, but will continue to add to his arsenal when necessary to maintain the balance of power. The removal of chemical weapons will most likely not be slowed in any way, since this represents the implementation of Putin's idea, and moreover, stalling the plan would dramatically exacerbate the whole situation.”

Paul Saunders of the Center for the National Interest adds that, with regard to Syria, “If Moscow thinks it has already reached the point of no return with Western capitals, then there may be limited costs in doubling down on Assad — moving from a policy of limited arms supplies to extensive arms sales and possibly even the provision of Russian advisers or specialists. From a Russian perspective, this approach would simultaneously apply greater pressure on the West and help to consolidate a government that could become a genuine ally in a strategic region. This would complicate Moscow’s uneasy relations with Saudi Arabia, but Russia could create trouble for Riyadh as well if needed.”