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Why Turkey’s elections matter

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is likely to win municipal elections on March 30, so the real question is what comes next?
Supporters of main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) wave Turkish and party flags during an election campaign gathering in Istanbul March 27, 2014. To the adulation of the cheering crowds at his election rallies, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan paints a picture of an "evil alliance" plotting to topple him and break Turkey. In another place, on another day, his chief rival portrays him as a rogue doomed to jail or exile. Sunday's local polls have taken on a significance far beyond what anyone could ha

More than 52 million Turks are expected to go to the ballot box on March 30. They will elect mayors and other local administrators, who will be in office for the next five years. In other words, this is not a general election that will change the structure of parliament and the government. That election is scheduled for July 2015. Yet, many see these local elections as extremely significant, because it has taken the form of an implicit referendum on the popularity of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Four important political forces will compete with each other from the outset:

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