What had been likely — and something Al-Monitor had referenced multiple times — finally happened. The town of Yabrud fell into the hands of the Syrian regime army, and with its fall a large number of militants from the factions fighting President Bashar al-Assad fled into adjacent Lebanese territory to the west. Most of them went to the Lebanese town of Arsal. All eyes have turned toward this region in light of a question many were asking: When will the great battle break out there? And what will be its price militarily and, especially, politically?
Based on the on-the-ground details, it became known on Saturday night/Sunday morning (March 15-16) that the Syrian army had tightened its control over the town of Yabrud, putting an end to the last armed opposition presence in the Qalamoun region. The latter is a large region that stretches from northern Damascus to the west of the city. This also secured the route linking the Syrian capital to the northwest, passing through Homs and reaching up to the Syrian coast. Analyses and predictions quickly emerged regarding the consequences of this battle on the situation in Syria politically and militarily, and particularly in terms of its impact on the fate of Syria and the regime. Yet, in contrast, the Lebanese are concerned with the expected consequences of this battle on their internal arena, from the Bekaa Valley, which is adjacent to Syria, stretching to the Lebanese capital, Beirut.
