In advance of the second round of the Geneva II talks, Russian diplomacy was in high gear and not limited to official contacts with Damascus. Indeed, a delegation from the Syrian National Coalition, led by Ahmad Jarba, arrived in Moscow on Feb. 4. At least the parties "started to understand each other better," but serious disagreements remain.

Moscow would like to see a more representative opposition delegation at the negotiations, including, among others, Kurds and the National Coordination Committee for Democrat Change, an internal political opposition grouping that was not part of the opposition Geneva delegation. But after his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Jarba emphasized that the National Coalition is opposed to expanding the delegation to include the "pocket opposition" — and who is that? The National Coalition wants very much to reach an agreement as quickly as possible on the formation of a transitional authority. Moscow underscores that only the parties in the conflict can do this, and that this will be the result of lengthy and painstaking work. Moscow, citing the agreements at the G-8 meeting in Lough Erne, is focusing special attention on fighting terrorism, but as I heard from opposition representatives, they do not want to "turn Geneva II into an anti-terrorism forum." Notably, in a Feb. 4 interview with RIA Novosti, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov even named the countries that are the "biggest mercenary recruiting centers" — France, Germany, Great Britain and Belgium — while there are mercenaries from Russia as well.

Russian analysts are trying to figure out whether Saudi Arabia enacting a new counterterrorism law means it is reconsidering its policy of supporting radical Islamist groups in Syria (and not only in Syria) or, rather, whether this law is intended to strike a blow against those who oppose Saudi foreign policy. The legal definition of terrorism itself leads many observers to believe the intent is to suppress the opposition, because the law defines terrorism as a criminal act that destabilizes the security of the society or the stability of the state. This definition is broad enough to be deployed in any direction. 

An observer for the semi-official newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta, however, seems to believe Riyadh really does want to make a change: "Clearly, the authorities in Saudi Arabia are tired of hearing more and more, lately, that their country is the main sponsor of terrorists and extremists throughout the Middle East." I would note that not everyone in Russia shares these accusations against the kingdom, and moreover, the kingdom is seen as a partner in counteracting terrorism. So, can we assume Riyadh will cut off the channels for financing the insurgents? This remains an open question, but much will depend on whether the sponsors of the intra-Syrian peace negotiations are able to expand the peace process to include the regional actors: Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.