On Feb. 10, the Iranian parliament, or Majlis, approved the proposed budget for the year 1393 (March 21, 2014, to March 20, 2015). The numbers are not the most striking aspect of this budget. Rather, it is the punctuality of the administration's handing the budget to the Majlis on time that speaks volumes. This is refreshing and indicates the return of order to the presidential administration, in direct contravention of what happened during the eight-year presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The 1393 budget was drafted for one of the most complex situations in the 35-year existence of the Islamic Republic. Iran is simultaneously struggling with high inflation (40%) and economic recession (an economic growth rate of minus 5.8% and an unemployment rate that stands at 12.6%), a condition dubbed by economists as stagflation. In 1996, during the presidency of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, inflation reached 49% but economic growth remained at 3%. In 1987, when Mir-Hossein Mousavi was prime minster, economic growth was minus 9%, with the inflation rate at 23%.
Looking at the numbers shows the $315 billion budget for next year represents a 7.6% increase compared with the current budget drafted by the Ahmadinejad administration. But considering the 40% inflation rate, the budget has shrunk notably. In its proposed budget, the government has assumed that it will not have enough funds for job creation next year. The current 12.6% unemployment rate, in the most optimistic forecast, will only go down by 0.2%.
The government will not have the resources to finance its development projects, either. Currently, there are 3,000 unfinished projects all over Iran. According to Mohammad Bagher Nobakht, the strategic planning and supervision deputy of the president's office, the government plans on finishing 250 projects that are 80% completed.
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