A poll, publicized Jan. 28 on the Knesset Channel, predicts 18 mandates for a new party headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, should the prime minister decide to split the Likud Party to implement a diplomatic plan vis-à-vis the Palestinians. The question asked in the poll, and the numerous interpretations given to its results, reflect a fixated thought process based on the schism created by late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in the Likud at the end of 2005 to implement the Disengagement Plan from the Gaza Strip and Northern Samaria.
When Israeli politicians attempt to anticipate the future, they share the tendency of generals to prepare for the previous war. Today’s Israeli politicians are not able to free themselves from the last major political-diplomatic event that shook them up: Sharon’s defection to establish the Kadima Party. Now, as Benjamin Netanyahu stands at a diplomatic crossroads and the possibility of adopting a compromise agreement with the Palestinians is floating around, the past Likud breakaway experience immediately comes to the fore in Israel’s collective memory, and becomes the only perceived path to realize such a process.