Mustafa Alani, a researcher on Security and Terrorism Affairs at the Gulf Center for Research, believes that al-Qaeda — despite its success in reorganizing its ranks in Iraq — still lacks strategic depth and a welcoming environment in the long run. Therefore, it is seeking to establish a more fluid entity in regions on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border to fight the military pressure it could face in Iraq by redeploying itself in the Syrian territories. The opposite would be true if it were faced by Syrian pressure. Hence, the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is a project to build a state that feeds on the failure and fragility of the governments in Iraq and Syria.
Al-Qaeda’s strategy is based on gradually controlling non-central regions especially in Anbar, northern Babylon, northern Diyala and parts of Mosul, and setting off to shake the control of the federal government in the city centers. Moreover, the organization aims at pushing the army to focus its efforts on defending those centers rather than attacking its camps.