There has been increasing debate about the economy in Egypt in recent weeks as political and street turmoil largely ceased to feature any big surprises (that is, of course, a relative statement), and as the pro-Morsi side appears to have been substantially contained. Talk shows have featured more and more angry criticism by hosts, commentators and guests regarding the cabinet’s performance, regularly dubbing it “The Shaky Hands Government.” The title predominantly relates to what critics perceive as the government’s indecisiveness on security issues, but it also has been increasingly used to refer to the cabinet’s performance (or alleged lack thereof) on economic and other non-political issues, especially as its nominally two top figures are widely considered to be respected economic minds.
While there might naturally be some disagreement over what needs to be done to revitalize the economy (whose growth rate slumped to 1.5% in the last quarter after rising more than 7% in 2008 and more 5% in Mubarak’s last years), there's agreement that the economy is in an unsustainable condition. Tourism, regularly said to account for more than 10% of GDP, is still down from its 2010 peak, and August violence cut tourist arrivals from Europe by 95%, according to government figures. Foreign direct investment — a strong engine for growth in Egypt, in particular — has been straggling; the trade deficit grew 6.3% year-on-year in July, while the budget deficit could surpass 13% as debt rises. Foreign reserves have been rapidly dwindling since 2011, and both the Mohammed Morsi government and the current government have strongly relied on aid from the Gulf to keep the country afloat. Meanwhile, statistics continue to show to signal the alarms on unemployment, poverty and inflation. The World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Report paints a bleak portrait of Egypt.
Naturally, growth would only truly be rekindled as local and international investments pick up. On the international front, the government has been making a push through several venues — the last of which was the Euromoney conference in Cairo on Nov. 11 — that Egypt is still an attractive country to invest in, that the political and security realities are not as ugly as it's often portrayed, and making the central argument that stability and democracy are ahead, all in a bid to keep worried existing investments and attract new ones. In fact, the deputy prime minister has been proclaiming an upcoming “Marshall Plan” for Egypt, which he hopes the global community would rally behind.
I was present during the recent annual joint International Monetary Fund/World Bank conference, which offered an interesting opportunity to hear more of what the international community, businesses, academic and research institutions think Egypt needs economically. And Egypt was indeed quite the recurring discussion topic, especially given the IMF's seemingly unending negotiations with Egypt, which effectively came to a halt following recent Gulf aid commitments of more than $12 billion. Debates diverged, but there were common themes in all public or side discussions with regard to what Egypt needed to do to begin a sustainable economic rebound. This largely revolved around eight main points.
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