Saudi Arabia is currently facing not only a major setback in its regional Arab diplomacy, but also an increasing isolation in international forums despite its recent election to a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. On Oct. 18, a day after it was voted in, Saudi Arabia turned down the seat as a protest against the international community’s unresponsiveness to its agenda, mainly in Syria, where direct military intervention gave way to diplomacy. Previously, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal canceled his speech at the UN after military intervention was ruled out. Saudi Arabia is putting itself in a corner and increasing its isolation, while entertaining grandiose plans that exceed by far its own capabilities. 

To remedy the situation, Nawaf Obaid proposes that Saudi Arabia revitalizes Arab alliances against regional threats. He anticipates a transformation of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy in that it will become more proactive and assertive in ways that free Arab countries from dependency on Western support, now that this support seems to be undermined by the recent American-Iranian rapprochement. 

A collective Arab security framework consisting of Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and GCC states under Saudi leadership seems far-fetched, wishful thinking. Such a security framework remains dependent on Western support, which seems to have weakened in recent months. Moreover, such a framework is destined even before it materializes to resemble a desperate club, fighting for survival amidst a region whose future and geopolitics remain uncertain, against a background where more militarization of conflict remains counter-productive and is beyond the wishes of more powerful international players.

Saudi Arabia boasts about both its successful direct military intervention in Bahrain under a GCC umbrella and fruitful diplomacy in Yemen, but both countries remain volatile up to the present day. Suppressing a true mass movement in one country and replacing one president by his deputy in another are hardly recipes for long-term stability in the Arabian Peninsula. These interventionist models have only prolonged confrontation simply because they have been imposed by mighty Saudi Arabia against the wishes of the people in those respective countries.