When you mention the phrase “Palestinian state” to Israelis, in the best case many imagine another failing and resource-poor Arab country. In the worst case, they expect that the day after the declaration of independence the West Bank will turn into another Gaza and that Tel Aviv residents also will have to become accustomed to the “red light” siren warning of rockets falling. 

For many years, especially in the recent years of right-wing rule, the words “Palestinians,” “Palestinian state” and “Palestinian authority” have been synonymous in Israeli consciousness with “terrorists,” “boycott” and “incitement.” Although more than four years have passed since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared his support for a two-state solution in a speech at Bar-Ilan University in June 2009, surprisingly (or maybe not), the government has not held even one discussion about the ramifications of the establishment of a Palestinian state. No official research institute has closely examined models of relations between Israel and Palestine or comprehensively evaluated the expected regional effects of the change on the future diplomatic, economic and security balance of power. As far as we know, there is no plan of action for the day after the establishment of the new state.

A team of Israeli, Palestinian and Jordanian researchers has picked up the orphaned gauntlet. It came together under the joint sponsorship of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue at the Netanya Academic College (headed by Reuven Pedatzur), the Data Studies and Consultations company from Ramallah (headed by Samir Hazboun) and the Center for Peace and Development in Amman (headed by retired Gen. Mansour Abu Rashid). The project was funded by the European Union and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. For two years, the three of them coordinated five research groups of 15 researchers from the three countries. Together, each of these groups examined data from different sources, analyzed it and formulated recommendations. The joint work demanded that they confront gaps in worldviews and bridge between different narratives. The working assumption was that the Palestinian state would be established in the West Bank and Gaza Strip (with territorial exchanges), and that East Jerusalem would be its capital.

One of the most interesting findings was a high likelihood of the natural formation of a Palestinian-Jordanian confederation. Another central finding points to a change in the view of the status of Palestinian refugees — the establishment of a nation-state would enable them to change their self-definition from “exiles” to members of the Palestinian nation living in the “diaspora.” The researchers found that contrary to the common understanding, which sees the refugee question as one of the main stumbling blocks for peace and reconciliation between the two peoples, the creation of a Palestinian state could actually resolve it.