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Three Scenarios for Day After Attack on Syria

The possible outcomes of a US-launched war on Syria.
A Patriot anti-missile battery is deployed in the northern city of Haifa August 29, 2013. Israel ordered a small-scale mobilisation of reservists on Wednesday, and strengthened its missile defences as precautions against possible Syrian attack should Western powers carry out threatened strikes on Syria. REUTERS/Baz Ratner (ISRAEL - Tags: CIVIL UNREST MILITARY POLITICS) - RTX12ZZO

It seems that the question is no longer whether the United States would, with the backing of a new coalition, launch an attack on Syria after the use of chemical weapons. The "Kosovo II" kind of attack, as many argue, should be much shorter in duration than the 1999 Kosovo attack, but not necessarily efficient in penalizing the Syrian regime and inflicting heavy damage on it. Such damage, however, would not necessarily change the military balance of power enough to favor an already politically and organizationally fragmented opposition.

Three scenarios could emerge from such an attack.

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