Skip to main content

Don’t Expect Iran To Fight for Assad

Despite dire warnings and threats from some Iranian officials, Tehran is unlikely to respond directly in the event of a military strike on Syria.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during the 16th summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran, August 30, 2012. REUTERS/Hamid Forootan/ISNA (IRAN - Tags: POLITICS) FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS - RTR379UE

To Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Arak is much more important than Assad.

Arak, the site of Iran’s heavy water reactor, as well as Iran’s other nuclear installations at Natanz and Fordo would become dangerously exposed to a potential future attack if Iran goes into war against the United States to protect Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. With Russia dismantling and scrapping the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles which Iran bought and made a down payment on in 2007, Iran needs to keep what remains of its anti-aircraft system at home. It cannot afford to send them to Syria to help Assad’s army. The same goes for Iran’s missiles and fighter aircraft, especially the latter, because sanctions have reduced their numbers and quality over the years. Sending them abroad to help Assad against the United States would risk their loss, knowing full well that it will be extremely difficult if not impossible to replace them.

Access the Middle East news and analysis you can trust

Join our community of Middle East readers to experience all of Al-Monitor, including 24/7 news, analyses, memos, reports and newsletters.

Subscribe

Only $100 per year.