For the second year in a row, the Lebanese economy is suffering from a decline in the rate of growth. At no point in the last two years has GDP growth exceeded 1.5% [per annum].

This poses a grave challenge of far-reaching importance. Unless held in check by decisive measures and sound policy, it might shatter the fundamental components of Lebanon's economy and its social fabric. Perhaps the primary reason for this emerging recession is the effect of the Syrian revolution and the consequent incitement of conflicts which have spilled over into the Lebanese interior. It has exacerbated the paralysis of Lebanon's state institutions, deepened the barriers between its citizens, and set its urban neighborhoods ablaze.

Everyone knows that the foundation of any economic infrastructure, particularly in countries subjected to security threats, is social trust. This factor is inextricably bound up not only with current events and their consequences on all levels, but with expectations for the future as well. Perhaps the greatest impediment to the economy is the absence of any horizons for a political solution or settlement, whether within Syria itself or regarding the conflicts raging on the Lebanese domestic scene.

The repercussions of the Syrian crisis have affected all the neighboring countries in the eastern half of the Arab world. Not even countries like Turkey and Iraq have been spared. Yet the former possesses manufacturing capacities sufficient to place it among the most important global economies, and the latter possesses abundant oil wealth — assets which enable both countries to absorb the negative consequences of the Syrian crisis upon their respective economies.