Evaluating the Oslo Accords: 20 Years Later
The inability of Israelis to decide whether the Oslo Accords were an achievement or a failure may be proof that peace is not likely to arrive very soon.
I remember the night well, at the editorial desk of Hadashot, which has long since folded, the emotional columns loaded onto the carefully designed pages. I also remember the discussion at the office of the chief editor, Yoel Esteron. It was clear that there would be a celebratory headline, but above it would also appear a kicker, which would ultimately spark disagreement within the newspaper and anger some readers. I think the kicker read, “Arafat has not denounced terror.”
It was a pinch of salt sprinkled at the height of the excitement on the night the Oslo Accords were signed in Washington by Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization. The next day, the phones rang, and furious letters were sent. Why ruin it, asked disappointed readers? Why highlight this point in particular, and in our paper, the paper of those who support peace?
In retrospect, there is no point in accounting for the wisdom in the wording of that sour headline, and it is uncertain whether the calculation is even possible. Indeed, exactly 20 years after Oslo — the secret agreement was signed in the capital of Norway on Aug. 20, 1993, and the public ceremony at the White House took place on Sep. 13 — there is no consensus on important questions: Has the accord failed, and [if so] who is to blame? Did it point the way for the next generations even though it did not immediately bring peace? Did it contain potential that was missed, or could it be that it was based on a conceptual error of those involved? Did mishaps along the way stem from misunderstanding or from malice? Did those involved really mean it or was it no more than a clever fraud?
Those who would say Oslo was a “failure” would point out that peace has not arrived, that violence has increased and that most of the Israeli public has long been sick of the agreement. Fifty-seven percent of respondents in a Maariv survey published Aug. 16 declared that the signing “has hurt Israel from a diplomatic, security and economic standpoint.” On the other hand, the Israelis who would say it was an “achievement” or “breakthrough” would recall that a more successful instrument for an Israeli-Palestinian agreement has not been found, and that after two decades, the two sides are talking again, at this moment, about that very old formula whose origin is in Oslo. An Israel Hayom survey conducted in July found that 52.7% of the public supports a “solution of two states for two peoples,” even if most of them oppose the Palestinian demands that would make such an agreement achievable. So, achievement or failure?
