Until Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s future path in politics becomes clear, time to talk about political stability in Turkey is over. This has nothing to do with the ongoing scattered protests since June against Erdogan’s way of politics, which were sparked in an attempt to save a green space in downtown Istanbul but got out of control due to excessive use of police force. It, however, all has to do with Erdogan’s decision not to run for parliament again. “Based on our party regulations, I am running for the chairmanship of (Justice and Development Party, AKP) for the (third and) last time,” Erdogan said on Sept. 30, 2012, at the AKP’s fourth regular general congress. “After (this term is over), I will do what my party tells me to do. As long as God allows me to live, inshallah we will be together again serving our nation with different duties, with different titles.”

What Erdogan wants is to be the country’s first elected president under a presidential system — assigning the parliamentary system to the shelves of history. But it’s not happening. Although the parliament’s constitution drafting commission has shown some progress and agreed on 48 articles, the opposition Republican People’s Party, CHP, and Nationalist Movement Party, MHP, are adamant that AKP’s insistence on the presidential system is preventing the negotiations from moving forward constructively. On July 10, though, Erdogan confronted them and exclaimed that he would withdraw his offer on changing to the presidential system if they could approve into law all those 48 agreed articles at the commission. “Let’s finish this constitution-making thing this summer,” Erdogan said.  “Let’s prove whether we or you are sincere.”  This is nothing but Erdogan’s sincere expression of frustration that he is not able to get what he wants.

Better put by CHP spokesman Haluk Koc on July 17: “(Erdogan’s offer for ratifying the 48 articles that are agreed upon) are no different than making constitution by installments.”

Many in Ankara’s political beltway, therefore, speculate that Turkey has an “Erdogan problem.” Some speculate that it will be best for Erdogan to backtrack from strictly following his party regulations for not running for office more than three times, and seek the prime minister’s post for a fourth time no matter what — as he is so confident that AKP will score a big victory again at the next general election scheduled for 2015. Others, however, argue that the best way forward is to convince Erdogan to run for president under the current system, and allow Abdullah Gul, the president, to take over the prime minister’s office. Gul has the best position in the party as he has run for office only twice since AKP came to power in 2002. While Gul’s becoming prime minister sounds like a more rational solution, the thing is that it also promises to be problematic.