Whether Qusair Will Tip The Balance Remains to Be Seen
The defeat of Syrian opposition forces in Qusair may be a turning point toward a deepening of the conflict or a catalyst for a peace conference.
The political consequences of the fall of the city of Qusair into the hands of pro-Assad Syrian forces backed by the Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon may be as important as the military results — if not more so. These political consequences may have more impact in the coming period, particularly in the geographical area concerned with the political struggle raging both in and against Syria.
One could even say that the military and political results are the same. On the one hand, this battle has facilitated President Bashar al-Assad’s takeover of Homs and Aleppo, down to the border with Turkey. On the other, it has allowed Moscow to play a more decisive and important role in the negotiations about a possible settlement for the Syrian crisis.
Moreover, this battle secured a contiguity between Damascus and the Syrian coast, the two main areas of influence of the regime. It secured communication at the international level between the roles of Moscow and Tehran in the Syrian arena to reach the solution that best serves the interests of the two parties.
Militarily, the opposition’s defeat took place at the worst time. It coincided with disputes plaguing the different components of the opposition, keeping in mind that these disputes have started to get out into the open. It also coincided with the advent of Jabhat al-Nusra becoming a main party in the opposition. This has had a negative impact on the opposition, in terms of the prevailing mood in Syria, as well as regarding international — particularly Western — public opinion.
