Spillover Effects of Syria’s Sectarian Conflict on Turkey

The Reyhanli attack coming just before Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s long-awaited Washington visit not only weakened the Turkish prime minister's hand in his meeting with US President Barack Obama but also delivered alarming messages for Turkey's near future.

Erdogan’s weakened hand results from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s inclination to launch daring operations to negate Turkey’s claim to be a regional power and his conviction of impunity. In a column for Bloomberg, Arab-American commentator Fouad Ajami wrote: “The bombs in Reyhanli, a quaint border town in the province of Hatay, were just the latest in a series of provocations by Syrian forces. Give Assad credit for his audacity. Like a gambler with steady nerves, he has bet that Erdogan won’t pull the trigger.’’

Although Erdogan held Assad and forces acting on his behest responsible for the Reyhanli bombing, his comments that we should keep cool and “the response will definitely come at the right time,’’ showed Assad’s gamble was on the mark and Erdogan's rhetoric was nothing but an effort to conceal his reluctance to the pull the trigger.

But Reyhanli means more than that and has deeper risks for Turkey. It is yet not clear whether the domestic opposition — including a high number of Al-Monitor commentators — acutely worried  by the prospect of Turkey entering a war against Syria because of Erdogan and his foreign policy are aware of these risks.