The postponement of Lebanese elections might be one of the first repercussions of the Qusair battle raging in Syria.

The entry of military forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad into this last insurgent stronghold in Homs’ countryside seems to have led, in practical terms, to a conviction by all Lebanese factions that parliamentary elections must be canceled or postponed to a yet undetermined date. The effects of this Syrian military battle on the Lebanese political scene can be explained by two main factors: The first has to do with developments on the battleground, while the second is political and concerns electoral calculations.

Militarily, the fall of Qusair led to a new round of violence and gun battles in the city of Tripoli, north Lebanon’s capital and the second largest city — after Beirut — in the land of the Cedars. It should be noted here that there is a direct causal relationship between the two fronts, for the Qusair battle, despite its being part of the war between the Syrian regime and its opponents, leaves an impression among Lebanese sectarian factions that the alliance between minority non-Sunni groups has vanquished the city’s Sunni insurgents. Retaliatory reactions to this development were expected to take place in two probable locations: Tripoli or western Iraq. Repercussions were immediately felt in the former, while the latter still is in a state of worried anticipation.

But, most important on the Lebanese front now, was that the latest round of violence in Tripoli, perpetrated by Sunni neighborhoods against the besieged Alawite neighborhood in the east, was the fiercest during the past five years of tension the city has experienced. This violence has, until the writing of this article, led to the deaths of 11 people and the wounding of 145. This locus of uncontainable military action, where neither side is capable of victory, has rendered impossible the holding of parliamentary elections in the region, and other adjoining Sunni areas, all the way to the district of Akkar, which is situated on Lebanon’s northern border with Syria and is divided into three electoral districts.