Skip to main content

Iran Follows 2012 Election ScriptTo Avoid 2013 Election Surprise

The Iranian government in 2012 staged calm parliamentary elections that resulted in victory for loyal supporters of the supreme leader; it hopes to do the same during this year’s presidential vote.
Iran's former top nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani flashes a victory sign after registering his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election at the interior ministry in Tehran on May 7, 2013. Iran began a five-day registration period for candidates in Iran's June 14 presidential election, with a string of conservative hopefuls in the running but with key reformists yet to come forward, media reports said. AFP PHOTO/BEHROUZ MEHRI        (Photo credit should read BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images)

With the Guardian Council’s elimination of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei from contention, Iran’s upcoming presidential vote looks likely to be a reprise of the 2012 parliamentary elections — victory for the camp of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but with a relatively low turnout.

Popular enthusiasm for the eight men approved by the Guardian Council on Tuesday (May 21) has been restrained, to say the least. Many middle-class Iranians are likely to stay home rather than choose among six close associates of Khamenei and two men — Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Reza Aref — with pragmatist/reformist credentials but little popular following.

Access the Middle East news and analysis you can trust

Join our community of Middle East readers to experience all of Al-Monitor, including 24/7 news, analyses, memos, reports and newsletters.

Subscribe

Only $100 per year.