Throughout 2012, it was perplexing to watch many Turkish pundits rooting for a military intervention in Syria, given the 2003 Iraq war.
In early 2003, 71% of Turks thought the US could militarily threaten their country, according to a Pew Research Center survey. The majority of the Turks have been vehemently against the US intervention in Iraq. A decisive parliamentary vote rejected the US proposal to send its army to northern Iraq through Turkey under AKP leadership on March 1, 2003. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s 2001 book, Strategic Depth, argues that if the region is strong, other powers will not intervene and it is best to resolve conflicts through regional means. Therefore, one would predict, the Obama administration’s “leading from behind” policy would please the current Turkish government and public. Do Turks prefer a US and international intervention in Syria? Asli Aydintasbas recently wrote a piece complaining that the US is not yet ready to see the backs of the Assads.
Aydintasbas wrote that the US prefers to prolong the civil war, rather than toppling Bashar al-Assad right away, due to fears of post-Assad jihadist elements taking over. She further tweeted to her friends that she is almost at the point of saying the US refrains from a military intervention because there is no oil in Syria. Aydintasbas is not alone in this rhetoric about the lack of US involvement and interest in the Syrian case. Turkish mainstream media have been increasingly critical of the US for “turning a blind eye to the Syrian civil war.” Based on talks with several Turkish pundits over the last couple of weeks, this piece will try to clarify some facts that are deliberately omitted from these anti-American viewpoints.
1. The US has no magic buttons to press: Contrary to the overwhelming belief that the US is omnipotent in the world, particularly in the Middle East, and is able to switch dictators with liberal democrats as it pleases, the US knows well that it has no such power. True, the US has had its share of foreign interventions, military and clandestine, yet through each of them it has learned a bitter lesson. Also, in many instances when the US sought to intervene, based on humanitarian concerns in the region, it faced backlash. The latest blunder came from Secretary of State John Kerry about Erdogan’s Gaza trip. Many pundits argue this public US disapproval of the trip will generate an “I dare you” moment with the Turks. Unless a graceful excuse is found, public support behind Erdogan’s notorious visit will increase. So, it is fair to say there are no Obama wands that can be waved from Washington to topple Assad short of a military intervention.
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