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Declining OPEC Leverage Predicted in BP Forecast

Growing energy production and diversification in the United States could make the US 99% energy sufficient by 2030, decreasing OPEC’s leverage over oil prices.
A view of Doura oil refinery in Baghdad April 9, 2012.  OPEC is seeking a balance in world oil prices, but political instability rather than production issues are affecting the market price, Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi said on Monday.  REUTERS/Mohammed Ameen (IRAQ - Tags: ENERGY POLITICS) - RTR30IVA

The OPEC oil cartel is facing major challenges over the next decade or more because of rising energy production and flat consumption growth in the United States.

According to new projections by BP, the United States will be 99% energy self-sufficient in 2030, due in part to big increases in production of shale oil, natural gas and renewables. These increases will leave the 12-nation cartel saddled with spare capacity, especially in the next decade, that will put downward pressure on prices and reduce incomes for countries dealing with restive, youthful populations.

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