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Lebanese Elections: Three Scenarios

As Shiite, Sunni and Christian considerations threaten to disrupt and even cancel the Lebanese elections scheduled for this summer, Jean Aziz outlines the three potential paths developments could take in the near future.
Pigeons fly in front of the parliament square in downtown Beirut October 25, 2012. The party capital of the Arab world, Beirut is a freewheeling city where Gulf Arabs, expatriates and Lebanese emigres fly in to enjoy its luxury hotels. But under the veneer of modernity lie sectarian demons coiled to strike. The car-bomb assassination last Friday of intelligence chief Wissam al-Hassan - an attack almost universally blamed on Syria and its local allies - brought the merry-go-round to a juddering halt. Gunmen
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Following months of failure by Lebanese government and opposition political forces to agree on a new electoral law, the three officials constitutionally responsible for the holding of elections took it upon themselves to enforce the currently applicable law, under which the last Lebanese legislative elections were held in 2009. To that end, the interior minister submitted a decree calling for elections to be held on June 9, which Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and President Michel Suleiman signed.

According to the timeframes defined by this law, which a large portion of Lebanese reject, the window for submitting candidatures begins 90 days prior to elections, and remains open for 30 days — in this case beginning on Monday, March 11. Yet, these developments do not mean that the elections will be held. For many obstacles still prevent them from occurring; be they legal, political, or practical. Legally, elections still necessitate two actions: the first is the formation of an independent supervisory body that would oversee the elections, as stipulated in the current law. The second necessitates that the cabinet approve the disbursement of a financial advance to the interior ministry, which is responsible for organizing the elections.

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