Once he wins the upcoming election [slated for Jan. 22] — and it will be an unprecedented sensation if it does not happen — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is bound to go through the same experience that right-wing governments in Israel are invariably subjected to — whether the narrow government of [former-late-Prime Minister] Yitzhak Shamir back in 1990 or the first Netanyahu government in 1996 — that of being trapped, caught between heavy international pressure from without and the rightist ideology of the partners to the government, from within. The good news is that often in the past, a Catch-22 situation like this was translated into unexpected progress in the political arena. It may yet happen in the case of the third Netanyahu government too, far-right as the government turns out to be.
The scenario of continued stalemate in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and possibly even escalation is always feasible. But let's imagine another scenario. Let’s assume that Benjamin Netanyahu forms a coalition that comprises in addition to his own party some right-wing parties like HaBayit HaYehudi, as well as one center party (Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid), and perhaps even Tzipi Livni’s Hatenua. As matters now stand, it seems to be the most likely government according to political observers. Back to our scenario: As soon as the new government is set up, it transpires that due to the huge deficits accumulated in recent years, the government has no choice but to slash its budget deeply. At the same time, the United States launches a new initiative for reviving the dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians, as U.S. President Barack Obama seeks to lead the two sides to negotiations on a permanent arrangement. What would Netanyahu do in this situation?
