It’s a safe bet that investing in building military capabilities vis-à-vis Iran will continue in the next government, regardless of its composition. Against the backdrop of the immense NIS 39 billion [US$8 billion] deficit revealed several weeks ago in the 2012 budget, ex-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of needlessly spending NIS 11 billion [US$3 billion] of the budget on "adventurous fantasies." But it would be hard to imagine an Israeli prime minister who wouldn't have invested in preparing a military option to stop Iran's nuclear program. Even if this contingency never materializes, the ability to use it as a threat could prove a sound investment in the long run.

Even the “new” Netanyahu — the one who, in his victory/concession speech on the night of the elections suddenly revealed that the “quest for peace” was a basic tenet of his government — still places the struggle against Iran as the top challenge facing his future government. Anyone who has met Netanyahu in recent years gets the impression that he views his life’s mission — the destiny thrust upon him by history — as stopping Tehran’s nuclear program. This mission, which was completely absent from the election campaign, will reappear on the agenda once the government line-up is completed.

In his September speech at the UN, Netanyahu marked his famous red line regarding Iran: production of 250 kilos of 20% enriched uranium. At the rate of current production, and assuming that the fissile material is not once again being diverted for other uses, the Iranians are poised to cross this threshold in March or April at the latest. US President Barack Obama will try to begin a direct dialogue with the Iranians, an effort expected to last at least until a new Iranian president is elected in June. If a surprising breakthrough doesn't occur, Netanyahu will again face the question: to attack or not to attack?

In the fall of 2010, Netanyahu broached the idea of an attack on Iran as a practical plan. The heads of the defense system stopped him, and, Defense Minister Ehud Barak later claimed, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) hadn't prepared the necessary capabilities. Since then, the cabinet has repeatedly approved special budgets for the development of capabilities against Iran — an investment that totaled about NIS 11 billion [US$3 billion], as Olmert revealed. “This is an expenditure on moves that were not made and will not be made," the former prime minister claimed, accusing Netanyahu of “adventurous fantasies.”