Both Israel and Iran are in the middle of an election campaign. While Israelis will cast their votes in a few days, the Iranians will vote in five months’ time. However, both campaigns barely grapple with the bottom line that rivets the world, namely whether their outcome will increase or decrease the chances of a regional conflict between the two states — a conflict which may deeply affect international reality in 2013.

In Iran, the elections take place under the heavy shadow cast by the repression of the 2009 Green Revolution. Some reformist candidates from that period remain under house arrest, while others, who are at large, grapple with the question whether running in this campaign could legitimize the regime that has already proven it would not balk at rigging the results.

Israel, on the other hand, sees a strange election campaign, in which the only known factor for certain — or so it seems — is the end result. At times, it seems that the campaign addresses the social plight of the middle class, while at other times it swerves sharply toward regional affairs and the negotiations with the Palestinians. It’s unclear.

What is clear, however, is that shortly after the elections in Israel, which take place one day after President Barack Obama is sworn in, hectic talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program will begin. The military option, which Israel had shelved during the summer months, might make a dramatic comeback. If the Americans fail to reach a breakthrough in their talks with Tehran, Jerusalem will push hard for an international operation to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program. And if that pressure comes to naught, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might — as he has said in the past — have to make a “historic decision.” The time frame that is now being talked about is the spring of 2013. This is precisely the time when the Iranians are slated to go the ballot — in June. The regime of harsh sanctions has been constantly permeating the local political discourse. Therefore this conjuncture of domestic Iranian politics, a new-old administration in Washington and a right-wing government led by Netanyahu could be highly volatile.