As a US-NATO deadline approaches for withdrawing most international forces from Afghanistan, the prime security challenge to the region may not be the return of insurgents but the issue of water.

Both Iran, which has a water treaty with Afghanistan that predates the 1979 Iranian revolution, and Pakistan fear that Afghan policies will deprive them of resources crucial to the well-being of their populations and future development hopes.

A recent report by the US National Intelligence Council predicts that countries such as Iran are“heavily dependent on fossil and imported water” and could become embroiled in conflicts with neighbors over dwindling water from shared river basins.

Afghanistan has had disputes over water with Pakistan since the latter country was established in 1947. Close to 17 million acre-feet of water enters Pakistan from the Kabul River every year. Planned hydroelectric projects on the Kabul River and its two main tributaries — Kunar and Panjshir — would ultimately irrigate an additional 14,000 acres in Afghanistan on top of 12,000 acres at present. However, according to some estimates, construction of 13 dams on the Kabul River would reduce Pakistan’s water supply from Afghanistan by 16-17%. Pakistani efforts to build dams and construction of the Kalabagh Dam have also been sources of tension. Several attempts to draft a water treaty with Afghanistan have failed. Pakistan media blame the lack of such a treaty on the Afghan administration.