Turkey Prepares for Life After Its Syrian Quagmire
Cengiz Çandar writes that Turkey is counting down the last days of the Bashar al-Assad regime and in delight and relief.
A consensus seems to have developed over last few days that the end of the Syrian regime is very near. Now in circulation as “intelligence information," the rumor mill’s favorite headline of the day is that Bashar al-Assad and his family will not be running the country in 2013.
Mind you, the Syrian regime’s life expectancy was already predicted to be short when the uprising started in March 2011. The hope that he was about to be toppled at any moment so prevailed that the Turkish government, which had promoted Assad as a “strategic partner” at the beginning of 2000s, dumped him and emerged as his most dedicated foe. How did that come about?
- Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu saw that end of the Damascus regime was near, felt the inevitability of a new Sunni regime and decided to adopt an early position against the Syrian regime for Turkey’s future interests.
- For a Sunni-Western Turkey with a 911 km border with Syria to staunchly oppose the Syrian regime, to host and support the Syrian opposition and to advocate a buffer zone were seen as the key elements of bringing down that regime.
But when with the support of Russia, China and Iran, the regime didn’t give up as early as wished, the Syrian policy of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) drew heavy criticism and opposition at home.
According to a poll by a reputable company, the results of which were not made public, there is a 7% decrease of support for AKP because of this displeasure with its Syrian policy. The manager of the research company shared this finding with me.
