Skip to main content

Crumbling Syrian Regime Casts Long Shadow Over Region

The bombing that killed senior regime officials in Syria is just another sign that Bashar al-Assad’s regime is on its way out sooner or later, writes Henri J. Barkey. Syria’s disintegration will quickly be felt in Iraq, already on the brink of sectarian violence, and ties between Iraqi and Syrian Kurds will increase pressure on both Turkey and Iran.
A Free Syrian Army soldier raises his rifle at the Bab Al-Salam border crossing to Turkey July 22, 2012. Syrian forces regained control of one of two border crossings seized by rebels on the frontier with Iraq, Iraqi officials said, but rebels said they had captured a third border crossing with Turkey, Bab al-Salam north of Aleppo. "Seizing the border crossings does not have strategic importance but it has a psychological impact because it demoralises Assad's force," a senior Syrian army defector in Turkey,

The bombing that claimed the lives of senior regime officials in Syria is just another sign that Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria will sooner or later be replaced. But the real question is what the region will look like in the months and years after its downfall.

The most likely scenarios for the post-Assad region depend on the duration and intensity of the current civil war. Clearly, the longer and the bloodier it is, the greater the bloodletting will be in its aftermath as the winners exact retribution for their suffering.

Access the Middle East news and analysis you can trust

Join our community of Middle East readers to experience all of Al-Monitor, including 24/7 news, analyses, memos, reports and newsletters.

Subscribe

Only $100 per year.