On Monday in Cairo, representatives from Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met to resolve the Syrian conflict. This was the second regional initiative on Syria which included Iran after Saudi King Abdullah invited Iran’s President Ahmadinejad to attend a unity conference in Mecca in August.

Iran will seize the opportunity to advance its Syrian policy. It aims to establish a cease-fire, halt foreign arms supplies to rebels, and negotiate with the opposition to build a friendly government in Syria. 

Iran has an enviable track record shaping the outcome of regional conflicts in its favor in contentious zones such as Iraq and Lebanon. As always, Iran will remain pragmatic, true to the Iranian revolutionaries’ mercantile backgrounds, by doing a cost-benefit analysis about its policy choices. Iran will “fish in muddy waters” — as the famous Persian proverb says — by accepting the direction of the water current and seizing opportunities along the way. Then it will shape the current by buying out opposing trends. 

Iran’s subversive policies will remain a challenge, but only if its leaders feel isolated, which is what led to the Syrian crisis. As early as 2008, Iran suspected foul play against its interests in Syria. Iranian-backed Press TV accused the US and Saudi Arabia of scheming to destabilize Syria. By 2010, during an interview which I attended, Ahmadinejad accused the US of “being up to some mischievous actions” in Syria, and vowed to protect his friend President Bashar al-Assad.