Obama's Afghan Exit Has Been Oversold
The deal signed by President Obama in his pre-dawn appearance in Afghanistan isn't nearly as dramatic in its substance as the choreography in Kabul would suggest. But it will neutralize his critics, who must now argue either for staying longer or getting out sooner.
President Obama’s pre-dawn appearance in Kabul on May 2 to sign the “Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement” (SPA) between the US and Afghanistan was memorable for its drama and choreography. Despite the understandable fanfare, the SPA has been oversold. In reality, Obama has initiated a new phase in the US exit strategy from Afghanistan, including a more narrow US mission and an end to the counter-insurgency (COIN) approach toward military operations. His objective is to end America’s longest war, on schedule, in 2014.
The SPA is what might be termed a “working” document. It contains many serviceable diplomatic bromides about the US-Afghan relationship, social and economic development, and strengthening Afghan institutions and governance. Expectations about development, institutions, and governance should be modest, whatever the scope of the US commitment. Afghanistan is a chronically weak and failing state, devastated by decades of conflict; the 172nd (out of 183) poorest country in the world, according to the IMF; and the 4th most corrupt, according to Transparency International. The implementation of the non-military aspects of the SPA will likely end up in a bureaucratic process and level far from the White House Situation Room.
On the military side, the headline from the SPA should be “stay tuned.” While the SPA commits the US to “seek funds” to train and equip Afghan forces, declare Afghanistan a “Major Non-NATO Ally,” and “not to use territory or facilities as a launching point for attacks against other countries,” the terms of the US-Afghanistan security relationship beyond 2014 to combat “al-Qaeda and its affiliates” and train the Afghan National Security Forces are to be negotiated in a forthcoming “Bilateral Security Agreement.” In other words, the specific terms of the long-term security relationship are not in the Strategic Partnership Agreement. It is an agreement to talk about another agreement.
The take away from the SPA and President Obama’s speech on May 2 is therefore not the "long-term commitment" to Afghanistan; it is rather the US exit from Afghanistan, including the end of COIN. The Taliban are not even mentioned in the SPA; the enemy is “al-Qaeda and its affiliates.” Obama said that the US goal is ‘not to build a country in America’s image, or to eradicate every vestige of the Taliban, acknowledging the US has been in direct discussions with the Taliban to support reconciliation. He added that “we’ll work with the Afghans to determine what support they need to accomplish two narrow security missions beyond 2014 — counter-terrorism and continued training.” Vice President Joseph Biden, who has consistently advocated counter-terrorism over counter-insurgency in Afghanistan, might be credited in whole or in part with this shift in policy.
