President Obama’s pre-dawn appearance in Kabul on May 2 to sign the “Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement” (SPA) between the US and Afghanistan was memorable for its drama and choreography. Despite the understandable fanfare, the SPA has been oversold. In reality, Obama has initiated a new phase in the US exit strategy from Afghanistan, including a more narrow US mission and an end to the counter-insurgency (COIN) approach toward military operations. His objective is to end America’s longest war, on schedule, in 2014.
The SPA is what might be termed a “working” document. It contains many serviceable diplomatic bromides about the US-Afghan relationship, social and economic development, and strengthening Afghan institutions and governance. Expectations about development, institutions, and governance should be modest, whatever the scope of the US commitment. Afghanistan is a chronically weak and failing state, devastated by decades of conflict; the 172nd (out of 183) poorest country in the world, according to the IMF; and the 4th most corrupt, according to Transparency International. The implementation of the non-military aspects of the SPA will likely end up in a bureaucratic process and level far from the White House Situation Room.
